Climatology

Plant Disease Risk Prediction with NEXRAD Precipitation Estimates

Fusarium head blight (FHB) of small grains tends to be associated with particular environmental conditions, especially rain-induced wetness periods occurring near anthesis. Attempts to monitor and predict the risk of FHB over large areas have been limited by the measurement of precipitation, which is among the most spatially discontinuous of all environmental variables. In this study funded by the U.S. Wheat and Barley Scab Initiative (USDA/ARS), 4 km resolution precipitation estimates from National Weather Service weather radar were employed in a Geographic Information System-based model simulation of wetness duration periods for small grains using a crop canopy energy balance approach. This method of estimating wetness duration over large areas should enhance the ability of researchers to correlate specific weather data with the occurrence of FHB epidemics in specific areas, and ultimately assist producers and processors of small grains in making decisions critical to the management and use of grain during epidemics. Results thus far suggest that increases in precipitation and other variables may have led to an overall increasing risk of fusarium in some parts of the central U.S. during the past 30-40 years.